Tropical Storm Henri


Tropical Storm Henri made landfall near Westerly Rhode Island around August 22 12:15pm eastern time with steady winds estimated at 52 Kts.  Power Outage and wind / tidal impacts were generally less than forecast (forecasts were quite intense leading up to landfall).

Model Performance Discussion

  • Tropical Storm / Hurricane Henri formed in the western Atlantic as a tropical depression on the 15th of August. The system began at a latitude of 37 N – very high latitude for tropical development.
  • Initial NHC tracks forecast a southwestward track that then curved out to sea without threatening landfall.
  • Models and NHC gradually forecast the storm closer and closer to the shore and then as a landfalling hurricane.
  • Hurricane Henri was eventually forecast to impact very close to NYC as a CAT 1 hurricane, which increased media coverage.
  • As Henri moved across the warm Gulf Stream waters (30 C / 86 F), Henri did become a hurricane.
  • Models / NHC then began a steady eastward transition of the landfall location – moving across Long Island to then just off the eastern edge.
  • NHC kept a CAT 1 impact forecast of strength as the weather models began to weaken the system – GFS did an excellent solution, accounting for the impact of the colder coastal water and land interaction.
  • Our wind gust modeling analysis/forecast did an excellent job of forecasting the area/speed of gusts.

Monarch's staff of Certified Consulting Meteorologists (CCM) and Data Scientists have partnered with METCON, Meteorological Connections, LLC. Together we provide Geographic Information System (GIS) based weather analysis by combining historical, current, and forecast weather conditions within GIS and using GIS principles to get at the impacts of weather -- worldwide.

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