THE NOAA GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS) PERFORMED QUITE WELL IN PREDICTING WHEN & WHERE TROPICAL STORM FRED WOULD MAKE LANDFALL.
Fred’s official landfall occurred near San Blas, Florida @ 2:15p CT / 3:15p ET. Maximum winds at landfall were 65mph (56 Knots). TS Fred increased in strength up until landfall - a growing trend with tropical cyclone activity as the climate changes. The warmer waters are tending to offset the influence of the land interaction immediately before landfall.
TS Fred was becoming extra-tropical in appearance before landfall – increasing the wind field but slightly decreasing the core winds.
The Monarch model slightly underestimated winds at landfall (generally 5 Kts to 10 Kts) and our model slightly overestimated winds (3 Kts to 7 Kts) inland about 100 miles. Along the track into Georgia, model winds were very close to observed.Only a few observations were above 50 Kt gusts and these were along the immediate coast of Florida.
Model Performance Discussion
The GFS model did well forecasting TS Fred’s landfall and strength several days in advance. After moving across Cuba, TS Fred became a post-tropical system – very weak and unorganized. Once entering the Gulf of Mexico, TS Fred tracked in a northerly direction, generally parallel to the western coast of Florida – far enough offshore to (1) not create any significant impact and (2) far enough offshore to continue to slowly strengthen over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.
Earlier model runs – a week or more out – had suggested the track closer to the west coast of Florida but in days leading up to landfall, the GFS model was very consistent and accurate with the track. As it turned out, the GFS was slightly weak at landfall due to the intensification all the way to landfall.
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