Tropical Storm Elsa


A preliminary analysis of available wind gusts from weather stations along the west coast of Florida compared to the Monarch model indicate most regions did not receive tropical storm winds >= 35 Kts.

  • Only Venice and two locations in the Florida Keys reported wind gusts above 35 Kts
  • Peak wind gust reported at Key West (61 Kts) occurred within a 10 minute period, with all other gusts 50 Kts or less. Venice reported a gust of 37 Kts.
  • GFS was too weak for about 24 hours after landfall with Cuba…forecast fewer wind gusts at Key West.

The Monarch model statistics (based on preliminary analysis of 23 stations reporting):  

  • Average observed peak gust 31.9 KTs vs Monarch average observed gusts of 30.4 KTs (@ 23 weather stations)
  • 7 of 23 observations agreed within 2 KTs of Monarch Model
  • 15 of 23 observations agreed within 4 KTs of Monarch Model

Model Performance Discussion

Monarch’s model performed very well with the track and well with the intensity. The GFS forecast the track quite early and was consistent in a track along the west coast of Florida for several days in advance. The GFS outperformed the ECMWF overall. TS Elsa made landfall at 11am / 7 July 2021).

TS Elsa is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves north / northeast but may strengthen a bit (back to TS strength) as it moves the US east coast. Official surface weather observations will be evaluated to check if any Tropical Storm wind gusts are observed (they may be within stronger thunderstorms).

Monarch's staff of Certified Consulting Meteorologists (CCM) and Data Scientists have partnered with METCON, Meteorological Connections, LLC. Together we provide Geographic Information System (GIS) based weather analysis by combining historical, current, and forecast weather conditions within GIS and using GIS principles to get at the impacts of weather -- worldwide.

Related Articles