Trouble in the Gulf…Again
After Helene, likely the year’s most costly weather disaster, all eyes shift back to its origin — the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Another area of low pressure has a high chance of developing into a tropical system this week, with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s creating ideal conditions. This system is expected to drift northwest, potentially targeting the Gulf Coast. Monarch meteorologists provide 24/7 support to help our partners prepare for extreme weather. Our real-time flood assessments and continuous alerts protected them during Helene and will do so again with this next storm.
Southwest Swelters through Late Season Heat Event
Phoenix, Arizona, and much of the desert Southwest are enduring a late-season heatwave, with temperatures soaring past 100°F, pushing the region toward what could be its hottest year on record. Climate change has intensified these heat events, leading to more frequent and prolonged waves of extreme temperatures. Las Vegas has recorded over 100 days above 100°F this year, and the heat is expected to persist through the week. MonarchView™ helps energy and utility companies adapt to these extremes, optimizing equipment performance amid surging energy demand. With grids under increasing stress, Monarch's guidance ensures resilience during this unusually hot season.
Fire Weather on High Alert
The northwest corner of the country faces dry, windy conditions this week, raising the fire weather risk across the region. Low moisture levels, combined with strong winds and warm temperatures, will leave the northern Plains, central and northern Rockies, and the desert West particularly vulnerable. MonarchView™ integrates hyper-local weather data to pinpoint areas at highest fire risk, empowering our partners to take timely action. Extent of Red Flag Warnings outlined below.
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International Stories:
Krathon Targets Taiwan
The 18th tropical system of the year across the western Pacific will make a very close pass by Taiwan between Monday and Wednesday. The good news is that the storm's core should stay just off the eastern shores of the island country, but still not without impacts. Heavy rain and strong winds will lead to instances of flooding with power outages likely. Peak winds near the storm's center should range between 120 to 130 miles per hour near the core, with wind gusts along the eastern portion of the island forecast to experience winds between 80 to 100 miles per hour.
Japan Close Call with Typhoon Jebi
Almost paralleling Krathon hundreds of miles to the northeast is Typhoon Jebi, which may bring some impacts to Japan’s east coast mid-week, including Tokyo. Jebi won’t be as strong as Krathon or as near to the island of Japan as Krathon will be to Taiwan — but still, the system may hold wind speeds between 75 to 85 mph which can lead to storm surges up to 3 feet with disruption to shipping lanes attempting to port.
Climate Change Doubling Rain Events in Europe
Central Europe saw multiple extreme rainfall events in September leading to deadly floods between Austria and Romania. Climate change has been the leading contributor to a nearly 10% increase in storm strength — measured by intensity and duration. Flooding rains destroyed properties and agriculture. Every 1 degree Fahrenheit the atmosphere warms, and 4% more water vapor is held in the atmosphere, ultimately doubling the chances for devastating storm events moving forward.
Record Wildfires Surround Ecuador Capital
Severe drought continues to plague South America with wildfires — there are currently uncontained blazes reporting from every country in the continent. The most concerning may be the encroaching wildfire on Ecuador’s capital city, Quito. Facing its worst drought in over 60 years, thousands have been evacuated as firefighters continue to combat the flames. To add salt to the wound, Ecuador has had to institute ‘blackouts’ as the drought strains energy capacity, leaving folks in the dark on a couple of occasions in each of the past three months.
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We are a woman-owned business with a team of Certified Consulting Meteorologists (CCM) and GIS Analysts, providing meteorological and climate services via custom forecasting, modeling and advisory within the insurance, tech, energy, real estate, transportation and agricultural sectors.
