Monarch Weather Weekly: November 17, 2024

Severe Storms Plague the South

The start of the work week will be quite disruptive with a strong system pushing widespread rain and strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Two rounds of storms are possible with damaging wind gusts the main threat during the early morning, and then another round of storms firing later in the evening. Storms along I-10 and I-20 will be capable of producing wind gusts that can roll over tractor-trailers — extremely dangerous, costly, and disabling to business. MonarchView delivers acute forecasts to determine the safest time and route for you while offering consulting to ensure every partner is on the same page. See MonarchView for Monday severe storm risk.

Drought & Fire Weather Persist

More than 50% of the country is currently experiencing moderate drought or worse, with the Northeast and Southwest facing heightened wildfire risks due to persistent dry and windy conditions. While many wildfires have been contained, new ones continue to ignite. Fortunately, moderate rainfall is expected to bring much-needed relief to the Northeast by Friday.

Remnants of Former Tropical Storm Sara To Bring Downpours to Gulf Coast

What’s left of Sara exits the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday with remnants tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. Monarch meteorologists forecast Sara’s remnant moisture to be pulled northward into a cold front that will help trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and into Florida by midweek. See forecast for total rainfall below. MonarchView leverages this data to provide specific flood risk scoring unmatched in the industry. 

Northwest Remains in Active Winter Pattern

Consistent moisture will continue to flow into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies early this week as multiple fronts will bring heavy coast rain and moderate to heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Cascade and Rocky Mountains. Multiple days of precipitation will make travel, especially along the immediate coast and through mountain passes quite difficult. Monarch has been working with ski and snow sport resorts to protect and maximize operations already this fall and provides around-the-clock coverage. Monarch can even give specific forecasts for anywhere on the slopes, positioning our partners for safety and success.  Snow totals through Saturday mapped out below.

INTERNATIONAL STORIES

Typhoon Man-Yi Punishes Philippines; Eyes Hong Kong

Reaching Super Typhoon status, Man-Yi reached wind speeds over 160 mph before it plowed through the Philippines over the weekend— decimating the northern region of the islands with flooding rain and destructive wind gusts. Nearly 300 mm (12 inches) of rain will have fallen when the back end of the storm finally leaves Monday. The storm will slowly weaken as it traverses closer to Hong Kong, packing heavy rain with coastal flooding possible. The core of the storm should stay south of the mainland until dipping to the southwest towards Vietnam by late week. 

Remnant Bheki Targets Madagascar

The once thriving Cyclone Bheki will bring remnant tropical moisture into the African island country Madagascar this week. Pockets of heavy rain with gusty winds may target the northern region this week, with rather large surf ahead of the system’s arrival this weekend. Impacts should be rather subdued across the same region that saw major cyclone Freddy make landfall back in February of 2023. 

Europe Braces for First Real Blast of Winter

A pattern change is coming for Europe this week, and it will bring bitter cold air and heavy snow to much of Europe, from France to western Ukraine. Up to 2 to 3 feet of snow (60-80cm) will be possible across the highest elevations of the Alps and Carpathian Mountains, while 4-12 inches (10-30cm) will be possible across lower elevations. This will put the first real strain on heating and energy costs across the continent and the snow could cause supply chain disruption. The colder pattern is forecast to persist through the final two weeks of November.

South America Sees Delayed Start to Wet Season

Dry conditions have pushed back the start of the wet season which has stunted plant growth in the early days of the growing season across a few counties, including Brazil and Argentina. The delay has even kept many soybeans from going into the ground. Some rain in late October did help provide drought relief but did not penetrate deeper layer soil required for some plants, such as corn and wheat. Scattered storm systems are likely this week, but rainfall should remain light — growing concern of more delays or stunted growth across numerous farms. 

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